Latest Articles
September 2024 Articles
National Articles

GDP and the Economy

Second Estimates for the Second Quarter of 2024

September 5, 2024

Download PDF

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024, according to the “second” estimate of the National Income and Product Accounts (chart 1 and table 1).1 In the first quarter,* real GDP increased 1.4 percent.

Chart 1. Real GDP: Percent Change from Preceding Quarter

[View larger chart]
Chart 2. Real GDP: Contributions to the Percent Change in 2024:Q2

[View larger chart]

The increase in second-quarter real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (chart 2 and table 1).2

  • The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households, health care, housing and utilities, and recreation services. Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were gasoline and other energy goods, furnishings and durable household equipment, recreational goods and vehicles, and motor vehicles and parts.
    • The increase in final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households was led by nonprofit hospitals.
    • The increase in health care reflected an increase in outpatient services.
    • The increase in housing and utilities was led by housing.
    • Within recreation services, the increase was led by membership clubs, sports centers, parks, theaters and museums as well as gambling.
    • The increase in gasoline and other energy goods reflected an increase in motor vehicle fuels, lubricants, and fluids.
    • Increases within furnishings and durable household equipment were widespread and led by glassware, tableware, and household utensils.
    • The increase in recreational goods and vehicles primarily reflected an increase in information processing equipment.
    • The increase in motor vehicles and parts was led by new light trucks.
  • Within private inventory investment, increases in wholesale trade and retail trade industries were partly offset by a decrease in mining, utilities, and construction industries.
  • The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected increases in equipment and intellectual property products that were partly offset by a decrease in structures.
    • The increase in equipment was led by transportation (notably, aircraft).
    • The increase in intellectual property products was led by research and development.
    • The decrease in structures was led by investment in commercial and health care structures.
  • The increase in imports was led by imports of goods, both durable (notably, capital goods, except automotive) and nondurable (notably, medicinal, dental, and pharmaceutical preparations).

Compared to the first quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected an upturn in private inventory investment and an acceleration in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by a downturn in residential fixed investment.

Table 1. Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Share of current-dollar GDP
(percent)		 Change from preceding period
(percent)		 Contribution to percent change in real GDP
(percentage points)
2024 2023 2024 2023 2024
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
1 GDP1 100.0 4.9 3.4 1.4 3.0 4.9 3.4 1.4 3.0
2 Personal consumption expenditures 67.7 3.1 3.3 1.5 2.9 2.11 2.20 0.98 1.95
3 Goods 21.9 4.9 3.0 −2.3 3.0 1.09 0.67 −0.51 0.65
4 Durable goods 7.6 6.7 3.2 −4.5 4.9 0.53 0.25 −0.35 0.37
5 Nondurable goods 14.2 3.9 2.9 −1.1 2.0 0.56 0.41 −0.15 0.28
6 Services 45.8 2.2 3.4 3.3 2.9 1.02 1.54 1.49 1.30
7 Gross private domestic investment 18.0 10.0 0.7 4.4 7.5 1.74 0.15 0.77 1.31
8 Fixed investment 17.6 2.6 3.5 7.0 3.0 0.46 0.61 1.19 0.53
9 Nonresidential 13.6 1.4 3.7 4.4 4.6 0.21 0.50 0.59 0.61
10 Structures 3.1 11.2 10.9 3.4 −1.6 0.33 0.32 0.10 −0.05
11 Equipment 5.0 −4.4 −1.1 1.6 10.8 −0.22 −0.05 0.08 0.52
12 Intellectual property products 5.5 1.8 4.3 7.7 2.6 0.10 0.23 0.41 0.14
13 Residential 4.0 6.7 2.8 16.0 −2.0 0.26 0.11 0.59 −0.08
14 Change in private inventories 0.3 --- --- --- --- 1.27 −0.47 −0.42 0.78
15 Net exports of goods and services −3.1 --- --- --- --- 0.03 0.25 −0.65 −0.77
16 Exports 10.9 5.4 5.1 1.6 1.6 0.59 0.55 0.17 0.17
17 Goods 7.2 7.7 6.2 −0.5 1.3 0.55 0.45 −0.04 0.09
18 Services 3.7 1.0 2.8 5.9 2.2 0.04 0.10 0.21 0.08
19 Imports 14.0 4.2 2.2 6.1 7.0 −0.56 −0.30 −0.82 −0.94
20 Goods 11.4 5.9 1.3 6.5 7.8 −0.64 −0.14 −0.71 −0.85
21 Services 2.6 −2.8 6.2 4.3 3.6 0.08 −0.15 −0.11 −0.09
22 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 17.5 5.8 4.6 1.8 2.7 0.99 0.79 0.31 0.46
23 Federal 6.5 7.1 2.4 −0.2 3.3 0.45 0.15 −0.02 0.21
24 National defense 3.7 8.4 0.5 −0.9 4.9 0.30 0.02 −0.03 0.18
25 Nondefense 2.8 5.5 4.8 0.6 1.2 0.15 0.14 0.02 0.03
26 State and local 10.9 5.0 6.0 3.0 2.3 0.53 0.64 0.33 0.25
Addenda:
27 GDI2 --- 1.9 3.6 1.3 1.3 --- --- --- ---
28 Average of GDP and GDI --- 3.4 3.5 1.4 2.1 --- --- --- ---
29 Final sales of domestic product --- 3.6 3.9 1.8 2.2 --- --- --- ---
30 Goods 30.6 7.3 2.6 −3.8 5.0 2.30 0.83 −1.18 1.52
31 Services 60.6 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.5 1.73 1.70 1.77 1.50
32 Structures 8.8 10.0 10.4 9.7 −0.8 0.83 0.86 0.82 −0.07
GDI
Gross domestic income
GDP
Gross domestic product
  1. The GDP estimates under the contribution columns are also percent changes.
  2. GDI is deflated by the implicit price deflator for GDP.

Note. Percent changes are from National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) tables 1.1.1 and 1.2.1, contributions are from NIPA tables 1.1.2 and 1.2.2, and shares are from NIPA table 1.1.10 or are calculated from NIPA table 1.2.5.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA's) featured measure of inflation for the U.S. economy, the price index for gross domestic purchases (goods and services purchased by U.S. residents), increased 2.4 percent in the second quarter after increasing 3.1 percent in the first quarter (table 2 and chart 3).

Within gross domestic purchases, food prices decreased 0.4 percent in the second quarter after increasing 2.0 percent in the first quarter. Prices for energy goods and services increased 2.4 percent after decreasing 1.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, gross domestic purchases prices increased 2.6 percent after increasing 3.3 percent.

The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 2.5 percent in the second quarter after increasing 3.4 percent in the first quarter. The increase in PCE prices reflected an increase in prices for both services and goods.

  • Within services, price increases were widespread, except for transportation services. The leading contributors were housing and utilities (led by housing), financial services and insurance (mainly banking and other financial services), other services (led by personal care and clothing services), and health care (led by hospitals).
  • Within goods, an increase in nondurable-goods prices was partly offset by a decrease in durable-goods prices. The leading contributor to the increase in nondurable-goods prices was other nondurable goods (mainly pharmaceuticals and other medical products). The leading contributors to the decrease in durable-goods prices were motor vehicles and parts and furnishings and durable household equipment.

Excluding food and energy, the “core” PCE price index increased 2.8 percent in the second quarter, following an increase of 3.7 percent in the first quarter.

Chart 3. Prices for Gross Domestic Purchases

[View larger chart]
Table 2. Prices for Gross Domestic Purchases
[Percent change at annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted index numbers (2017=100)]
Line Series Change from preceding period
(percent)		 Contribution to percent change in gross domestic purchases prices
(percentage points)
2023 2024 2023 2024
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
1 Gross domestic purchases1 2.9 1.9 3.1 2.4 2.9 1.9 3.1 2.4
2 Personal consumption expenditures 2.6 1.8 3.4 2.5 1.71 1.18 2.24 1.65
3 Goods 0.9 −1.4 −0.5 0.7 0.20 −0.31 −0.11 0.15
4 Durable goods −4.4 −3.5 −0.5 −2.6 −0.35 −0.27 −0.03 −0.19
5 Nondurable goods 3.9 −0.2 −0.6 2.5 0.55 −0.03 −0.08 0.34
6 Services 3.5 3.4 5.4 3.4 1.51 1.48 2.35 1.51
7 Gross private domestic investment 1.7 2.3 0.9 2.5 0.30 0.39 0.17 0.42
8 Fixed investment 1.7 2.4 1.4 2.5 0.30 0.41 0.24 0.43
9 Nonresidential 0.9 2.0 1.8 2.2 0.12 0.26 0.24 0.29
10 Structures −2.3 2.1 −0.4 0.4 −0.07 0.06 −0.01 0.01
11 Equipment 2.3 1.5 4.1 1.7 0.11 0.07 0.20 0.08
12 Intellectual property products 1.4 2.4 1.0 3.8 0.08 0.12 0.05 0.20
13 Residential 4.8 4.0 0.0 3.6 0.18 0.15 0.00 0.14
14 Change in private inventories --- --- --- --- 0.00 −0.02 −0.08 −0.01
15 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 5.1 1.9 3.9 2.1 0.84 0.32 0.66 0.36
16 Federal 4.0 4.0 4.1 2.9 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.18
17 National defense 4.2 4.7 4.2 2.8 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.10
18 Nondefense 3.7 3.0 4.1 3.0 0.10 0.08 0.11 0.08
19 State and local 5.7 0.6 3.8 1.7 0.59 0.07 0.41 0.18
  Addenda:
  Gross domestic purchases:                
20 Food 1.9 1.4 2.0 −0.4 0.10 0.07 0.10 −0.02
21 Energy goods and services 16.1 −2.9 −1.3 2.4 0.42 −0.08 −0.03 0.07
22 Excluding food and energy 2.5 2.1 3.3 2.6 2.34 1.90 3.00 2.40
  Personal consumption expenditures:                
23 Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption 1.9 1.6 2.1 −0.4 --- --- --- ---
24 Energy goods and services 16.2 −3.2 −1.3 2.3 --- --- --- ---
25 Excluding food and energy 2.0 2.0 3.7 2.8 --- --- --- ---
26 Gross domestic product 3.3 1.6 3.1 2.5 --- --- --- ---
27 Exports of goods and services 4.0 −2.2 2.8 2.8 --- --- --- ---
28 Imports of goods and services 0.3 0.5 2.8 2.4 --- --- --- ---
  1. The estimated prices for gross domestic purchases under the contribution columns are also percent changes.

Note. Most percent changes are from National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) table 1.6.7; percent changes for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for food and energy goods and services and for PCE excluding food and energy are from NIPA table 2.3.7. Contributions are from NIPA table 1.6.8. Gross domestic product, export, and import prices are from NIPA table 1.1.7.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Measured in current dollars, personal income increased $233.6 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $396.8 billion in the first quarter (table 3). The increase in the second quarter primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries) and personal current transfer receipts (led by government social benefits to persons).

Personal current taxes increased $50.6 billion in the second quarter after increasing $156.6 billion in the first quarter.

Current-dollar disposable personal income (DPI) increased $183.0 billion, or 3.6 percent, in the second quarter after increasing $240.2 billion, or 4.8 percent, in the first quarter. Personal outlays increased $274.0 billion after increasing $222.6 billion.

Real DPI (chart 4) increased 1.0 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the first quarter.

The personal saving rate (chart 5)—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 3.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with 3.8 percent in the first quarter.

BEA's standard practice for first-quarter estimates of wages and salaries is to incorporate data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program as part of BEA's? annual update of the National Economic Accounts. New QCEW data for the first quarter of 2024 will be incorporated in next month's release, along with the 2024 annual update of the National Economic Accounts (refer to “Annual Update of the National Economic Accounts”).

Chart 4. Real Disposable Personal Income

[View larger chart]
Chart 5. Personal Saving Rate

[View larger chart]
Table 3. Personal Income and Its Disposition
[Billions of dollars; quarterly estimates are seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Level Change from preceding period
2024 2023 2024
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
1 Personal income 23,644.3 23,877.9 217.7 161.8 396.8 233.6
2 Compensation of employees 14,644.9 14,820.7 214.6 79.4 196.8 175.8
3 Wages and salaries 12,138.9 12,290.0 184.2 58.5 162.9 151.0
4 Private industries 10,313.4 10,436.6 141.8 24.5 124.8 123.2
5 Goods-producing industries 1,904.4 1,936.2 30.0 11.5 25.5 31.8
6 Manufacturing 1,114.6 1,135.0 20.8 0.0 12.0 20.4
7 Services-producing industries 8,409.0 8,500.5 111.8 12.9 99.3 91.4
8 Trade, transportation, and utilities 1,845.3 1,859.8 28.9 −0.1 18.0 14.5
9 Other services-producing industries 6,563.8 6,640.7 83.0 13.1 81.3 76.9
10 Government 1,825.5 1,853.4 42.4 34.1 38.1 27.8
11 Supplements to wages and salaries 2,506.0 2,530.7 30.4 20.9 33.9 24.8
12 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj 1,890.4 1,900.4 35.5 23.1 7.8 9.9
13 Farm 35.6 28.0 −8.3 −11.9 −2.4 −7.6
14 Nonfarm 1,854.8 1,872.4 43.7 35.0 10.2 17.6
15 Rental income of persons with CCAdj 1,023.9 1,026.2 13.3 13.7 35.8 2.3
16 Personal income receipts on assets 3,699.5 3,697.0 3.9 60.8 32.2 −2.5
17 Personal interest income 1,814.2 1,814.4 21.6 39.2 −1.4 0.2
18 Personal dividend income 1,885.3 1,882.6 −17.6 21.6 33.5 −2.7
19 Personal current transfer receipts 4,248.8 4,317.6 −26.5 −6.9 162.0 68.8
20 Government social benefits to persons 4,135.0 4,204.3 −29.5 −8.5 155.7 69.3
21 Social security 1,426.4 1,439.4 7.5 13.0 52.2 13.0
22 Medicare 965.3 983.2 4.4 5.0 13.9 17.9
23 Medicaid 916.9 942.7 −30.8 −12.3 48.6 25.9
24 Unemployment insurance 22.7 22.7 −1.3 1.7 0.1 0.0
25 Veterans' benefits 174.7 178.4 0.3 0.7 1.1 3.8
26 Other 629.0 637.8 −9.6 −16.7 39.9 8.8
27 Other current transfer receipts, from business (net) 113.8 113.3 3.0 1.7 6.3 −0.6
28 Less: Contributions for government social insurance 1,863.2 1,884.0 23.2 8.3 37.8 20.7
29 Less: Personal current taxes 2,949.1 2,999.7 61.5 27.1 156.6 50.6
30 Equals: Disposable personal income 20,695.2 20,878.2 156.2 134.7 240.2 183.0
31 Less: Personal outlays 19,917.9 20,191.8 319.9 238.8 222.6 274.0
32 Personal consumption expenditures 19,142.5 19,399.9 260.5 235.0 228.1 257.4
33 Personal interest payments1 523.5 538.4 55.9 1.1 −8.2 14.9
34 Personal current transfer payments 251.8 253.5 3.5 2.8 2.7 1.7
35 Equals: Personal saving 777.3 686.4 −163.7 −104.1 17.6 −90.9
36 Personal saving as a percentage of DPI 3.8 3.3 --- --- --- ---
CCAdj
Capital consumption adjustment
DPI
Disposable personal income
IVA
Inventory valuation adjustment
  1. Consists of nonmortgage interest paid by households. Note that mortgage interest paid by households is an expense item in the calculation of rental income of persons.

Note. Dollar levels and percent changes are from National Income and Product Account tables 2.1 and 2.2B.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

The increase in second-quarter real GDP was revised up 0.2 percentage point from the “advance” estimate, primarily reflecting an upward revision to consumer spending that was partly offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and private inventory investment (table 4).

  • The revision to consumer spending reflected upward revisions to both services and goods.
    • Within services, the largest contributor to the revision was nonprofit institutions serving households (led by nonprofit hospitals).
    • Within goods, the leading contributor was gasoline and other energy goods.
  • Within nonresidential fixed investment, the revision reflected downward revisions to intellectual property products and equipment that were partly offset by an upward revision to structures.
    • For intellectual property products, the downward revision was to software.
    • Within equipment, the downward revision was to information processing equipment.
    • For structures, the upward revision was mainly to investment in manufacturing structures and power structures.
  • Within exports, both goods and services were revised down.
  • Within private inventory investment, the downward revision was led by wholesale trade industries.
Table 4. Advance and Second Estimates for the Second Quarter of 2024
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Change from preceding period (percent) Contribution to percent change in real GDP (percentage points)
Advance estimate Second estimate Second estimate minus advance estimate Advance estimate Second estimate Second estimate minus advance estimate
1 GDP1 2.8 3.0 0.2 2.8 3.0 0.2
2 Personal consumption expenditures 2.3 2.9 0.6 1.57 1.95 0.38
3 Goods 2.5 3.0 0.5 0.55 0.65 0.10
4 Durable goods 4.7 4.9 0.2 0.35 0.37 0.02
5 Nondurable goods 1.4 2.0 0.6 0.20 0.28 0.08
6 Services 2.2 2.9 0.7 1.02 1.30 0.28
7 Gross private domestic investment 8.4 7.5 −0.9 1.46 1.31 −0.15
8 Fixed investment 3.6 3.0 −0.6 0.64 0.53 −0.11
9 Nonresidential 5.2 4.6 −0.6 0.69 0.61 −0.08
10 Structures −3.3 −1.6 1.7 −0.10 −0.05 0.05
11 Equipment 11.6 10.8 −0.8 0.55 0.52 −0.03
12 Intellectual property products 4.5 2.6 −1.9 0.24 0.14 −0.10
13 Residential −1.4 −2.0 −0.6 −0.05 −0.08 −0.03
14 Change in private inventories --- --- --- 0.82 0.78 −0.04
15 Net exports of goods and services --- --- --- −0.72 −0.77 −0.05
16 Exports 2.0 1.6 −0.4 0.22 0.17 −0.05
17 Goods 1.7 1.3 −0.4 0.12 0.09 −0.03
18 Services 2.6 2.2 −0.4 0.10 0.08 −0.02
19 Imports 6.9 7.0 0.1 −0.93 −0.94 −0.01
20 Goods 7.7 7.8 0.1 −0.84 −0.85 −0.01
21 Services 3.6 3.6 0.0 −0.09 −0.09 0.00
22 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 3.1 2.7 −0.4 0.53 0.46 −0.07
23 Federal 3.9 3.3 −0.6 0.25 0.21 −0.04
24 National defense 5.2 4.9 −0.3 0.19 0.18 −0.01
25 Nondefense 2.2 1.2 −1.0 0.06 0.03 −0.03
26 State and local 2.6 2.3 −0.3 0.28 0.25 −0.03
  Addenda:
27 Final sales of domestic product 2.0 2.2 0.2 --- --- ---
28 Gross domestic purchases price index 2.3 2.4 0.1 --- --- ---
29 GDP price index 2.3 2.5 0.2 --- --- ---
GDP
Gross domestic product
  1. The GDP estimates under the contribution columns are also percent changes.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Measured in current dollars, profits from current production (corporate profits with the inventory valuation adjustment and the capital consumption adjustment) increased $57.6 billion, or 1.7 percent at a quarterly rate, in the second quarter. In the first quarter, profits decreased $47.1 billion, or 1.4 percent (table 5). In the second quarter, domestic profits of financial corporations increased $46.4 billion, domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased $29.2 billion, and rest-of-the-world profits (net) decreased $18.0 billion.

Table 5. Corporate Profits
[Seasonally adjusted]
Line Series Billions of dollars (annual rate) Percent change from preceding quarter (quarterly rate)
Level Change from preceding quarter
2024 2023 2024 2023 2024
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
  Current production measures:                  
1 Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj 3,424.7 108.7 133.5 −47.1 57.6 3.4 4.1 −1.4 1.7
2 Domestic industries 2,926.5 99.9 142.4 −49.4 75.6 3.8 5.2 −1.7 2.7
3 Financial 569.9 9.0 5.9 65.0 46.4 2.0 1.3 14.2 8.9
4 Nonfinancial 2,356.5 90.8 136.5 −114.5 29.2 4.1 5.9 −4.7 1.3
5 Rest of the world 498.3 8.8 −8.9 2.3 −18.0 1.7 −1.7 0.5 −3.5
6 Receipts from the rest of the world 1,033.8 22.0 −20.1 25.7 −6.2 2.2 −1.9 2.5 −0.6
7 Less: Payments to the rest of the world 535.5 13.2 −11.2 23.4 11.8 2.6 −2.2 4.7 2.3
8 Less: Taxes on corporate income 650.8 12.6 28.2 29.2 10.5 2.2 4.8 4.8 1.6
9 Equals: Profits after tax 2,774.0 96.1 105.2 −76.3 47.1 3.7 3.9 −2.7 1.7
10 Net dividends 1,894.9 −18.2 23.8 32.6 0.9 −1.0 1.3 1.8 0.0
11 Undistributed profits from current production 879.1 114.3 81.4 −108.9 46.3 15.3 9.5 −11.6 5.6
12 Net cash flow with IVA 3,473.6 142.1 118.2 −100.2 109.5 4.4 3.5 −2.9 3.3
CCAdj
Capital consumption adjustment
IVA
Inventory valuation adjustment

Note. Levels of these and other profits series are shown in National Income and Product Accounts tables 1.12 and 6.16D.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

 

  1. “Real” estimates are in chained (2017) dollars, and price indexes are chain-type measures. Each GDP estimate for a quarter (advance, second, and third) incorporates increasingly comprehensive and improved source data; for more information, see “The Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components” in the January 2018 Survey of Current Business. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, which reflect a rate of activity for a quarter as if it were maintained for a year.
  2. In this article, “consumer spending” refers to “personal consumption expenditures,” “inventory investment” refers to “change in private inventories,” and “government spending” refers to “government consumption expenditures and gross investment.”

*Note. September 9, 2024: since this article was originally published, the quarter referenced in this sentence was updated from the second quarter to the first quarter.